How?

We can make a difference.

Working together and voting in The Conservative Party of Canada’s leadership election, we can help choose a tolerable leader for the Conservative Party. A leader that doesn’t make your skin crawl. A leader you would not be embarrassed to have as your Prime Minister. A leader whose objectives do not strike at the ideals Canadians have fought for and held up for generations. Specifically a leader that is not Kellie Leitch or Kevin O’Leary. In true Canadian fashion, we will be voting against these people. But unlike a regular election, we won’t play the odds in our ridings to prevent an intolerable candidate from winning. We will band together irrespective of our political affiliations to halt those who would harm our nation.

There are four big factors that grant us this opportunity:

  1. Small population of expected voters. (The most generous estimates believe 2.5% of all eligible voters will cast votes for the Conservative Party leadership)
  2. Electoral ridings have equal weighting in leadership selection (focusing on less populated ridings spreads our votes further)
  3. Negligible barrier to enrol as a voter.  (Joining the Conservative Party is a one time cost of $15. Membership is available to Permanent Residents and Citizens over the age of 14)
  4. Single transferable ranked ballot format of the election. (If your preferred candidate is out of the running and a single leader has not emerged, your vote transfers to another candidate of your choosing)

The first three factors make it possible to gain a significant voice, when compared to the expected Conservative Party voters. The fourth factor ensures that we do no not have to agree on a particular candidate to prevent the likes of Kellie Leitch or Kevin O’Leary from having a chance at becoming the next Prime Minister.

How to Join the Conservative Party. (VOTER REGISTRATION CLOSED!)

You can either join online or by mail. Membership forms can be found on the Conservative Party’s Website.

How to Vote.

If you join the party before March 28, you will receive a ballot by letter mail. You have the option of returning the ballot by letter mail before May 26 or bringing your I.D. and ballot to a local polling station on May 27.

The local polling stations will be announced on the Conservative Party’s Website.

How the Election works.

The Conservative Party of Canada will elect its next leader on May 28, 2017. All members of the Conservative Party who have joined for a one time fee of $15 (CAD) before March 28, 2017 are eligible to vote. The leadership election is conducted with a ranked ballot vote using the same 338 ridings as the Federal election. Each riding is worth 100 points, which are distributed to candidates based on the percentage of first place votes they receive in that riding. Should a candidate capture a majority of all available points, they will become the next leader of the party. If no single candidate receives a majority of the available points, the candidate who receives the fewest points is removed from the ballot. Those who voted for an eliminated candidate will have their vote transferred to their most preferred andidate still in the race. Then the points are recalculated. This process is repeated until a clear winner is chosen.

If we manage to control 50% +1 of the available points, it doesn’t matter which candidate each of us vote for, we will have succeeded in preventing the worst candidates from becoming leader.

The Math

How can we guarantee the loss of an unfavourable candidate if we don’t vote as a block?

Each ballot ranks the voter’s choices in order of preference, and the highest ranked candidate remaining in the race will receive that voter’s vote for a given round. This means that so long as everyone who has pledged to vote against intolerable candidates, and has ranked every candidate higher, each of those votes will be counted in every round against the intolerable candidates.

A candidate will need a majority of points at the end of any round of voting to win the party leadership. If we control that majority, and none of us vote for an intolerable leader, they can not win, but there will be no clear winner either. One of the other candidates will be removed, and our votes will transfer to other candidates. Only by being second, third, fourth, etc. choice for a voter after more-preferred candidates are eliminated, can a candidate gain additional points through subsequent rounds of tabulation. As none of us are going to rank intolerable candidates any where near the top, our vote will never count for them. We may not be successful in the first round ‘of counting, but our choices will consolidate as the rounds go on, until we will have eventually prevailed. Even if we do not make up a majority of the Leadership race voters, our votes will each make it harder and harder for certain candidates to win the Conservative Party Leadership.

How can we achieve a majority of the points?

If we can convince enough people from outside of the Conservative Party to join and vote for better options in the Conservative Party Leadership race we can fully achieve our goal. How many people is enough? Surprisingly few.

The Conservative Party of Canada does not release membership statistics, but Party insiders have been quoted expecting between 100,000 and 150,000 voters in the coming election. Which is less than 0.5% of the Canadian Population! To control 50% +1 of the points, we want to aim to control more than 50% of the votes in each riding. Assuming that those 150,000 thousand voters are distributed across the country in proportion to the population, we can get a reasonable estimate of how many voters are required in each riding.

 

Province Expected Voters % of Canadian Population (x) Number of expected voters in province Number of Ridings in Province (/) Expected # of voters in each riding
Alberta  150,000  10.89%  16,335  34 480
British Columbia   150,000  13.14%  19,710  42 469
Manitoba   150,000  3.61%  5,415  14 367
New Brunswick   150,000  2.24%  3,360  10  336
Newfoundland  and Labrador   150,000  1.54%  2,310  7 330
Nova Scotia   150,000  2.75%  4,125  11 375
 Ontario   150,000  38.39%  57,585  121 476
Prince Edward Island   150,000  0.42%  630  4 158
 Quebec   150,000  23.61%  35,415  78 454
Saskatchewan   150,000  3.09%  4,635  14  331
 Northwest Territories   150,000  0.12%  180  1  180
Nunavut   150,000  0.09%  139  1 139
Yukon   150,000 0.10%  150  1  150
 Canada   150,000  100% 150,000  338  444

Assuming every member in a riding is voting for the same undesirable candidate, an average of 450 people would be needed in each riding to guarantee a specific selection.

In the grand scheme of things, that is not a lot people to convince to join us. By speaking up now, our voices will have a much stronger impact than they would if we were to wait until the next federal election. By that point a candidate who fails to represent the ideals that matter to Canadians will be enshrined as leader of the Conservative Party, and likely has the full weight of the party supporting them. If we all work together, we can convince people to vote for someone who will pursue polices that are aligned with our democratic, tolerant, evidence-based government. Through the power of social media and our networks, if we can spread the message to like-minded people in each riding, we can definitely make a difference.

 

Assumptions:  

The membership estimate quoted in the CBC article is correct.

Ridings are not populated equally, so an average is used for this example. There are some outliers but they tend to skew smaller than the average for the province, meaning an even smaller number of Tolerable Opposition members are needed in these ridings.

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